Personally, I feel enormous difficulties to believe that only one field of science or engineering can become the answer for the several problems we are constantly facing in our daily lives.
Undoubtedly, one of the main current problems for mankind is related to environmental issues; which derivate to other correlated problems like an enormous web. And, perhaps, the first warnings started at the 70's, which led Paul Ehrlich to develop the following equation:
I = P x A x T
where, I = impact; P = population; A = affluence; T = technology.
By analyzing this equation, we can imagine how many jeopardies are concealed in the future. The improvement of sanitation, urban conditions, medicine knowledge and so on, has greatly stretched human life expectance. Obviously, especially after the WWII, there was a sharp population boom all around the world.
And, it is likely that the world population will continue to grow throughout this century.
Affluence is also an important question. A sudden and drastic reduction of consumption patterns will hamper economics. Consequently, it could lead several people to critical standards in a chain effect, and it would also be against one of the basic prerrogatives of sustainable development: the satisfaction of basic and daily needs. For example, the sharp economic development of some countries, allowed the increasing of their population, which under other economical scenarios would not be possible.
Is technology the key to solve this problem? By analyzing this equation, it would suggest that the more advanced the technology is, the lower would be the environmental burden. In simple words, this equation, optmistically puts all hopes in green and clean technologies.
Technology itself has social implications which can be hardly assessed with accuracy. I suppose that both the bad or good spillovers (externality) can be attributed to the way of technology is implemented. However, the issue is that generally the technologies are built in a cartesian approach, focusing only one objective, ignoring the effects in chain.
A simple example: one of the causes for the environmental problems such as heat island and especially in summer lies in the replacement of the original surface by asphalt in cities. So, let's focus on the asphalt. It warms up faster than bare soil, and the difference can be sensed at afternoon. The bigger the length the asphalt layer is, the more energy it accumulates.
However, asphalt layers are engendered to cope with the load of trucks, cars and motorcycles.
But, what is the big deal?
Mankind does not have the perception of thinking in a system, but in cartesian approaches. It is hardly difficult to imagine a conversation amidst carmakers, urban planners and transport enginners in order to analyze the synergic relation between automobiles, roads and heat island. However, if the vehicles were engendered in order to decrease the total weight, in a systemic approach, transport engineers could later slightly decrease the thickness of the asphalt layer designed to cope with the load of trucks, cars and so on.
As a final effect, it would decrease the accumulated energy in the asphalt and also slightly alleviate the temperature gradient of this layer.
Does it tackle the problem of urban heat island? Probably not, but, undoubtedly, it can alleviate.
However, is mankind trained to think in an holistic way? I doubt it.
Moreover, with this possible necessity of diminishing the automobiles weight would lead to more sophisticated approach of materials. By the way, Toyota has been targeting biodegradeble plastics made from, e.g., sweet potatoes, to utilize in its cars. If, for example, it can decrease the weight of cars, the nanotechnology would gain a much greater importance than it has now.
Obviously, a systemic approach would have a much greater impact than isolated cartesian initiatives to tackle global climate changes.
Nevertheless, it is an excellent time to start thinking in a systemic approach.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Saturday, November 21, 2009
日本の英雄達とビジネスの世界
本日、自由が丘へちょっと散歩させて頂きまして、ある本屋に入りまして、様々の面白い本を拝見しました。漢字を読むと言う事はそんなに得意ではありませんが、やはり、大和国の不思議な話に関して、気に成りました。そして、日本史に関してちょっと分かりますが、一つの疑問が生れ出せまして、大和国の第一の英雄は誰でしょうか？最近、武田家の軍師である、山本勘助について、ちょっと好奇心があって、勉強しおうと思っているんですが、もし、日本の英雄を選ぶであれば、第５は誰のでしょうか？
さて、自分の意見を表わせて頂きたいと思います。
第一：源九郎判官義経
幼名は牛若丸でした。義経は清和天皇の河内源氏の子孫で御座います。
父上は源義朝で御座いまして、この武将は平治の乱には、平氏と負けたので、結局亡くなりました。牛若丸の運がかなり逆転が多いです。父上が亡くなり、母上常盤御膳で、非常に美麗な淑女と言われていました。敵として、平清盛が、牛若丸の生命を予備しましたが、後程牛若丸が鞍馬にあるお寺に送られました。当時に、名前は遮那王で御座いました。様々な不思議な伝説が御座り、一つとしては、武道は天狗に教えられたと言う事が御座いました。即ち、仏教を勉強しながら、武道も覚えたでしょう。義経は武道が優れて、様々な敵を倒して、この中の一つとしては武蔵坊弁慶で御座います。彼らの友情が最後迄続きました。
兄上の代わりに、義経の戦争の戦略が優れていて、誰でも想像出来ず戦略を用いて、何回、何回、敵を驚いて、勝ちました。恐らく、最も有名な戦いは一の谷でした。一の谷の軌跡としては、義経組の戦力が一万じゃくですが、平の戦力は何数万でした。どの様に、勝で御座るか、義経こそも考えたでしょうか？
一の谷の軌跡に関して、ビジネスの世界と非常深い関係が御座ると思います。
平家の位置が良くて、更に、戦力も多かったでしたが、義経が諦めず、勇気が集まって、そして、場所の標高を解析しました。平の軍隊が後山に守られていて、左と右が浜で、そして、前は海でした。もし、源の軍隊が攻撃したら、平の軍隊が浜に待っていて、更にも、軍港もあったのでしょうかと考えていますのです。予報的で考えると、浜と海しかなかったです。後ろで、源氏の攻撃は無理でしたが、絶対的不可能で御座いませぬ。
軍戦力が少ない義経は直観力があったのでしょうか？個人的そ思います。なぜかと言うと、義経がどの様な動物がこの山を通じるのかと言う訪ねました。有ったと言う答えが貰いました。そして、義経が数人と一緒に、この山を逆落、自分で軍戦力を導きました。平氏の考えによって、その動き方は絶対不可能だと思っていたので、義経の軍隊の姿を見ると、本当に怖かったでしょう。
同時に、分散された源氏の軍隊も浜から平の軍隊を押していて、平家にとって、軍隊の人数が多かったけど、逃げるしかありませんでした。
一ノ谷の軌跡には、現在のビジネスマンにとても良い知識があり、役に立つと思います。
- 軍力の人数を考慮すれば、平家の人数の方が多かったで、不利な状態ですが、源義経は逆転が出来ました！
- 標高と地理の解析がして、もし山を逆落出来れば、源氏の軍隊は少ないけれども、驚く可能性が非常に高かったです！
- 現在には、勿論解析が大事ですが、変化がとても速いです。だからこそ、衝撃的、絶対全く思わず動き方も必要です。ビジネスでその思わず動き方が出来れば、いくら不利があっても、逆転が出来る訳です。
- 態度です。義経と頼朝のジレンマです。頼朝は政治的に関して、どんな動きによって、非常に気をつけましたが、戦争の戦略に関して、義経の様な態度がありませんでした。ビジネスの世界には、勿論条件によって、頼朝の様な考えが必要ですが、個人的が日本の業界がもっと義経の様な一の谷の軌跡の動き方が必要です。これは良い攻撃的さで御座います。
Friday, November 20, 2009
Externality x environmentalism
Whether urban planners and architects are aware of the meaning of "externality" is a good question, however this word belongs to economics, it is enormously important. I should correct myself and say, not only for architects and urban planners.
What is "externality"? Externality is something that is not directly involved in the cost of a good, but affects the living standards. A good example of externality is: the beautiful landscape surrounding an office building, which allows the employees to constantly appreciate it. Therefore, the enjoyable view can slightly enhance the productivity of the company.
On the other hand, a negative example of this spillover is: when we refuel our cars, the price of gas includes costs for extraction of oil, manufacturing (investments on R&D), taxes and the presumible profit. However, is this the real price of gas? Using gas implies in CO2 dispersion, and consequently, it also pollutes the local environment, decreasing the air quality and enhancing the probability of respiratory illness outbrakes. Obviously, it will also have impacts on the people, generating stress, more likelihood for illness and so on.
And how can we relate the negative externality with the climate change? I conducted an experiment incorporating data of anthropogenic energy (sensible heat and latent heat) of Kanto Region in August of 2006. It is said that air temperature peaks in August, therefore the air conditioning demand increases, and it generates a vicious circle that enhance air temperature.
However, our daily activities also affect the local wind velocity. A default run in a numerical simulation weather prediction model showed that the average air velocity measured at 10 meters in Tokyo is 2.53753 m/s, whilst the inclusion of anthropogenic energy enhances the velocity to 2.92886 m/s, a difference of 0.391336 m/s.
In addition to that, the water molecules amount in a volume of dry air (mixing ratio) is altered, and it is related to the extra energy input. For the levels close to the ground, the extra heat will provide more energy, and the water molecules will tend to be uplifted. For example, in August for Tokyo, the amount was 16.894 g/kg in the default run, and the inclusion of anthropogenic energy meant that the mixing ratio amount was 16.7437 g/kg measured at 2 meters height. A gap of 0.1502853 g/kg.
Therefore, urbanization not only enhances air temperature, but also enhances air velocity, and decreases air humidity at the bottom levels, which means a drier and hotter environment, and we could think about the outbreak of respiratory illness outbrakes.
Although my results are merely based on investigation, I am very sure that tackling the contemporary problems requires an enormous combined effort of urban planners, architects, medical doctors and economists.
Perhaps, the lie of the prices do not input the environmental burden costs, however, the effects are crystal-clear.
What is "externality"? Externality is something that is not directly involved in the cost of a good, but affects the living standards. A good example of externality is: the beautiful landscape surrounding an office building, which allows the employees to constantly appreciate it. Therefore, the enjoyable view can slightly enhance the productivity of the company.
On the other hand, a negative example of this spillover is: when we refuel our cars, the price of gas includes costs for extraction of oil, manufacturing (investments on R&D), taxes and the presumible profit. However, is this the real price of gas? Using gas implies in CO2 dispersion, and consequently, it also pollutes the local environment, decreasing the air quality and enhancing the probability of respiratory illness outbrakes. Obviously, it will also have impacts on the people, generating stress, more likelihood for illness and so on.
And how can we relate the negative externality with the climate change? I conducted an experiment incorporating data of anthropogenic energy (sensible heat and latent heat) of Kanto Region in August of 2006. It is said that air temperature peaks in August, therefore the air conditioning demand increases, and it generates a vicious circle that enhance air temperature.
However, our daily activities also affect the local wind velocity. A default run in a numerical simulation weather prediction model showed that the average air velocity measured at 10 meters in Tokyo is 2.53753 m/s, whilst the inclusion of anthropogenic energy enhances the velocity to 2.92886 m/s, a difference of 0.391336 m/s.
In addition to that, the water molecules amount in a volume of dry air (mixing ratio) is altered, and it is related to the extra energy input. For the levels close to the ground, the extra heat will provide more energy, and the water molecules will tend to be uplifted. For example, in August for Tokyo, the amount was 16.894 g/kg in the default run, and the inclusion of anthropogenic energy meant that the mixing ratio amount was 16.7437 g/kg measured at 2 meters height. A gap of 0.1502853 g/kg.
Therefore, urbanization not only enhances air temperature, but also enhances air velocity, and decreases air humidity at the bottom levels, which means a drier and hotter environment, and we could think about the outbreak of respiratory illness outbrakes.
Although my results are merely based on investigation, I am very sure that tackling the contemporary problems requires an enormous combined effort of urban planners, architects, medical doctors and economists.
Perhaps, the lie of the prices do not input the environmental burden costs, however, the effects are crystal-clear.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
More poetry...
The following poem was also published in 1999 by Shan Publishing company, when it promoted a national competition in Brazil and my poems were selected to be part of a book. Initially, I followed a very unique style: first I imagined important issues about our lives, and later I tried to establish comparisons to the wise Nature. Obviously, it has several implicit meanings and one of my goals is to compel the readers to imagine, think and discuss.
RIO / River
Fora visto / Was seen
De nascente tenra e dócil /Tender docile spring
Límpidas águas cristalinas / Limpid crystal-clear water
Nas verdejantes montanhas /In greenly mountains
Outrora calmas /Once calm
Emanam estrondosas /Rumble emanates
É o vigor da jovem cachoeira /Youth Fall's vitality
Que vence as sólidas pedras / The solid stones vanquishes
Experientes águas / Experienced waters
Os horizontes ampliam / Widen the horizons
Outros rios a ti afluem / Flow, other rivers towards you
Companheiros de igual essência / Partners of equal essence
A doce voz das águas apazigua / The sweet voice of waters appeases
Gorjeiam os pássaros candidamente /Naively, the birds twitter
Tons agudos os ventos trazem / Acute tones, bring the winds
Diversos sons em harmonia / Diverse sounds in harmony
É singular sinfonia da Natureza /Unique Nature's symphony
Que ecoa do rio e da floresta / Echoing from river and forest
Deleite que à alma enleva / Delight that enraptures the soul
Sábias águas /Wise waters
Longos caminhos percorreram / Transversed long paths
Viram pedras, pássaros e árvores /Saw stones, birds and trees
Sua missão foi cumprida / Your mission was accomplished
Pode agora entregar-se ao imenso mar / Can entrust itself towards the huge sea
Friday, November 13, 2009
A little bit of poetry to relax...
One of my biggest dreams, and I want to eagerly strive for it, is publishing my very own poetry book. Not only in my mother tongue, portuguese, but also in english, spanish and japanese. Here, I left a sample that has already been published in 1999, during a national competition in Brazil.
HUMILDADE /HUMBLENESS
Portentosos, viçosos / Portentous, luxuriant
Raquíticos, teimosos / Puny, stubborn
Trigo que inunda / Wheat that floods
O verde campo / The greenly field
Uiva o vento / Yells the wind
Indomável, inclemente/ Indomitable, inclement
Natureza furiosa / Furious Nature
Árvores o reverenciam / The tress revere
Irradiante outrora / Radiant once
Verdejante, abundante /Greenly, abundant
Curva o trigo viçoso / Bends down the luxuriant wheat
À força da Natureza / Towards the Nature power
Magros galhos teimosos / Tiny stubborn branches
Lutam contra a fúria / Against the fury fight
São partidos pelo vento / Are split by the wind
São partidos pelas Leis da Vida / Are split by the Laws of Life
What are the effects of urbanization towards local climate?
If, undoubtedly, urbanization is likely to exert an influence towards local climate, it is necessary to investigate and check how much and by which means the effects will be produced. At first glance, discarding the effects of buildings, we can start thinking about our daily activities.
Everyday, in all metropolis of the world, we use buses, trains, cars, motorcycles and so on to arrive to our work places. Moreover, every activity we develop, regardless it is inside a factory, or an office desk work, results in dispersion of sensible heat. The case of plants is obvious, however, we might have hardly perceived the effects of computers in offices, which is not negligible, or it should not be.
Therefore, one of the main questions would be: HOW can we diminish this environmental burden?
A second question, not less important than the first, is: how big is this impact?
Regarding the first question, technologies such as hydrogen powered cars, hybrid cars, the extensive use of solar panels may point out some incremental improvements. Obviously, it is the most important question.
Nevertheless, regarding the second question, I can provide some hints and results. Before answering it, the daily discharges of heat can be named anthropogenic heat. However, we should also remember that this heat can be also released in latent form, so we will name it as anthropogenic water. Considering this two kinds of discharged heat means that the total amount can be called by anthropogenic energy.
What are the effects of the anthropogenic energy? Obviously, according to the local climate and affluence, it can greatly vary, however, in a research using the software Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) I established a comparison between 3 cases, but, let's first analyze the influence of our daily activities by means of measuring anthropogenic energy effects on air temperature.
I conducted an experiment encompassing an area of 100 km x 100 km in Kanto Area, encompassing the main cities of Tokyo, Yokohama and Chiba. The impacts of anthropogenic energy can be of great relevance, since it increased the average air temperature at 2 meters in Tokyo by 0.36℃.
Obviously, there are uncertainties due to the spatial resolution and the data per se, however, we cannot neglect the enormous impact of our daily activities.
The question that arises as a great challenge is: how can we diminish the burden towards the local environment coming from our daily activities?
Everyday, in all metropolis of the world, we use buses, trains, cars, motorcycles and so on to arrive to our work places. Moreover, every activity we develop, regardless it is inside a factory, or an office desk work, results in dispersion of sensible heat. The case of plants is obvious, however, we might have hardly perceived the effects of computers in offices, which is not negligible, or it should not be.
Therefore, one of the main questions would be: HOW can we diminish this environmental burden?
A second question, not less important than the first, is: how big is this impact?
Regarding the first question, technologies such as hydrogen powered cars, hybrid cars, the extensive use of solar panels may point out some incremental improvements. Obviously, it is the most important question.
Nevertheless, regarding the second question, I can provide some hints and results. Before answering it, the daily discharges of heat can be named anthropogenic heat. However, we should also remember that this heat can be also released in latent form, so we will name it as anthropogenic water. Considering this two kinds of discharged heat means that the total amount can be called by anthropogenic energy.
What are the effects of the anthropogenic energy? Obviously, according to the local climate and affluence, it can greatly vary, however, in a research using the software Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) I established a comparison between 3 cases, but, let's first analyze the influence of our daily activities by means of measuring anthropogenic energy effects on air temperature.
I conducted an experiment encompassing an area of 100 km x 100 km in Kanto Area, encompassing the main cities of Tokyo, Yokohama and Chiba. The impacts of anthropogenic energy can be of great relevance, since it increased the average air temperature at 2 meters in Tokyo by 0.36℃.
Obviously, there are uncertainties due to the spatial resolution and the data per se, however, we cannot neglect the enormous impact of our daily activities.
The question that arises as a great challenge is: how can we diminish the burden towards the local environment coming from our daily activities?
What are the effects of urbanization towards local climate?
The recent drastic jeopardies caused by flooding, storms, hurricanes, etc., strongly suggests that human actions may be a huge influence towards the so called Global Warming. If we analyze the global economy development from 1950 to 2000, whose output increased from US$ 6 trillion to US$ 43 trillion and also establish a comparison to the CO2 released into the atmosphere, we will undoubtedly find some strong relations; in 1950 the carbon emissions reached 1.6 billion tons per year, whilst in totaled astonishing 6.3 billion tons in 2000. Not by coincidence, according to Lester Brown, the average air temperature has risen from 13.99℃ in 1969-71 to 14.43℃ in 1998-2000.
It is quintessentially obvious that something must be rethought or changed in our daily activities, however, how can we start a major change becomes a great issue. Under the definition of sustainable development, if for one hand we cannot deplenish the available resources for the coming generations, on the other hand we should also be able to satisfy our current needs.
It poses as a great challenge, because, if for one hand we must carefully consider ecological assets and how to better manage them and decrease the burden towards the environment, we must also provide means to sustain a responsible economical development which carefully considers environmental issues.
The prominent british architect Richard Rogers pointed out that buildings are responsible for 50% of world generation of CO2. It is a data that cannot be neglected and strongly suggests that architecture and also urban planning guidelines should be engendered in order to compell buildings to achieve a better efficiency performance.
It is quintessentially obvious that something must be rethought or changed in our daily activities, however, how can we start a major change becomes a great issue. Under the definition of sustainable development, if for one hand we cannot deplenish the available resources for the coming generations, on the other hand we should also be able to satisfy our current needs.
It poses as a great challenge, because, if for one hand we must carefully consider ecological assets and how to better manage them and decrease the burden towards the environment, we must also provide means to sustain a responsible economical development which carefully considers environmental issues.
The prominent british architect Richard Rogers pointed out that buildings are responsible for 50% of world generation of CO2. It is a data that cannot be neglected and strongly suggests that architecture and also urban planning guidelines should be engendered in order to compell buildings to achieve a better efficiency performance.
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